Retreat to lead the structure to upgrade the new energy vehicle subsidy new deal in place

  The new energy vehicle subsidy adjustment plan is expected to land in the near future, and the industry will enter a new stage of development. On December 8th, the China Automobile Association was quoted as saying that the 2016 new energy vehicle subsidy policy has been signed by four ministries and commissions in the near future and is expected to be released this month.

退坡引领结构升级 新能源汽车补贴新政就位

According to the statistics of motor vehicle complete vehicle certification, in November 2016, China's new energy vehicle production was 84,000 vehicles, an increase of 16.21% year-on-year; among them, the output of special vehicles was 15,900, an increase of 77.78%; from January to November 2016, new The cumulative output of energy vehicles was 420,800 units, a year-on-year increase of 44.27%.

It is expected that after the new energy vehicle subsidy adjustment plan is officially introduced, the new national subsidy policy will be significantly degraded compared with the previous version, and the retreat of some models will reach 60%. This will lead to structural changes in the domestic new energy vehicle market.

Among them, pure electric logistics vehicles will get more support, because the electric bus is more serious, the proportion is decreasing, the demand for ternary batteries will increase, becoming the two major development of new energy vehicle market. direction.

“The five years from 2016 to 2020 is a key period for the introduction and cultivation of new energy auto industry. The government and enterprises still need to make great efforts.” Wang Binggang, a special expert in the special technology of electric vehicles for the 863 Program of the Ministry of Science and Technology, said that the future car subsidy will be withdrawn. Instead of adopting the norm of environmental and energy factors to encourage policies, and to achieve private purchases.

On the enterprise side, judging from the current report of the annual report of the car companies, the implementation of the new energy subsidy policy has become the key word and barometer of the profit trend of the enterprise.

After BYD achieved a five-fold surge in net profit last year, the company's net profit in 2016 may have surged to 5.2 billion yuan, continuing to maintain a high growth rate. The new energy vehicle business will continue to maintain a good momentum of development at the same time. In the traditional automobile business, the continued sales of BYD SUV models will promote the steady growth of the Group's traditional car sales.

As a result of the incident of fraudulent compensation, Jinlong Motor announced that the fraudulent compensation will have a greater impact on the company's 2016 operating results. On September 9, Jinlong Automobile announced that the penalty for Suzhou Jinlong will directly reduce the net profit attributable to the parent company by RMB 315 million in 2016, which will have a greater impact on the 2016 operating results.

Yaxing Bus has sold 3,765 passenger cars in January-October, a year-on-year increase of 35%. In terms of subdivision, from January to October this year, Yaxing sold 2,883 large passenger cars, an increase of 84% year-on-year; sales of 455 medium-sized buses, down 46% year-on-year; sales of 427 light buses, up 10% year-on-year.

Zhongtong Auto has received a total subsidy of RMB 203.61 million from the 2015 National New Energy Vehicle Promotion paid by the Liaocheng Finance Bureau to the Company. The amount will directly offset the accounts receivable formed by the company's sales of new energy buses . The receipt of the funds will improve the company's cash flow, reduce financing costs and have a positive impact on business performance.

New energy vehicles warm up and accelerate

2016 is a year of recognition for new energy vehicles. Previously, the government introduced various forms of incentive policies to compensate for the lack of product technology maturity and initial high costs, and quickly launched the market.

Recently, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the National Development and Reform Commission issued and formulated a series of industrial policies for the new energy vehicle industry chain, mainly starting from the aspects of access conditions, point management, and carbon emissions. From the perspective of the policy itself, supervision has become stricter, but on the other hand, the New Deal is more conducive to the healthy development of the industry. For leading enterprises in the industry, the concentration may be further improved.

In addition, charging facilities are welcoming the intensive period of policy dividends. From the recently held Beijing Smart Energy Group Urban Smart Transportation Symposium, it is understood that the future charging infrastructure will become the focus of industrial policy support, and the degree of policy support and refinement will be significantly improved. It is expected to introduce a unified central financial subsidy mechanism. And other policies such as tax support.

According to estimates, during the "13th Five-Year Plan" period, the total investment demand for charging facilities in the whole industry is 160 billion to 180 billion yuan. At present, the various parties have different ways of staking. The industry believes that investment opportunities are mainly in the public transportation system. The distribution network construction is combined.

Chen Qingtai, former deputy director of the Development Research Center of the State Council, also believes that the industrialization of electric vehicles must ultimately be completed by the market. Pure electric logistics vehicles will get more support. Due to the serious fraudulent circumstances of electric buses, this proportion is decreasing, and the demand for ternary batteries will be increased to meet market needs.

Soochow Securities believes that the fourth batch of catalogues is based on the reshuffle and refactoring of the first three batches of catalogues. The catalogue of the complete vehicle companies and models, and the power batteries that are included in the catalogue are also included in the enterprise catalogue of the catalogue of the standard conditions of the power battery industry. In the future, based on safety and efficiency, OEMs will bind large-scale battery plants to ensure stable battery supply and controllable quality. With the launch of the new energy vehicle promotion catalogue, it is expected that the production and sales of automakers will be sufficient in 2017, and sales of new energy vehicles are expected to increase.

Of course, in the face of strong foreign competitors in the same industry, China's new energy vehicles, especially the battery industry, will still have to face tremendous competitive pressure in the future. However, the development of an emerging industry will inevitably face a competitive environment for survival of the fittest. Enterprises that do not adhere to technological innovation and industrial sentiment lose not only subsidies, but also the market and the future. Only the industry leaders who meet the challenges and pay attention to the trend can accumulate and win the future.

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