Low sales or forced changes in the automotive market

At the beginning of December 2011, according to the statistics released by the China Automobile Association, the production and sales of automobiles all exceeded 1.65 million in November 2011, a year-on-year decrease of 2.42%. In the first 11 months of 2011, the production and sales of domestic automobiles were 16,870,300 units and 16,815,600 units respectively, an increase of 2.00% and 2.65% year-on-year. November continued its declining trend in October, and the degree of decline has increased.

China Automobile Association believes that the production and sales volume in November was at a relatively high level during the year (2011), but due to the higher base figure in the same period of last year, the production and sales in November continued to decline slightly year-on-year. In addition, in the last month of 2011, the annual production and sales volume of automobiles was 18.62 million and 18.06 million vehicles in the previous year were still 1.54 million and 1.25 million respectively. Taking into account the hikes in December, 2011 reached the previous year's level and there is a certain increase, there should be no problem. For this situation, "Car Watch" has already had a pre-judgment. (For details, please refer to “Car Watch” 2011.11 monthly “The first three quarters of the auto market PK”)

At present, it seems that the year-on-year growth in car sales in 2011 remained at around 2%, almost a certainty. In addition, automakers and distributors (especially for listed distribution groups) will undoubtedly stage a new round of “marketing wars” to complete or as close to the annual sales target as possible. Moreover, the current general public opinion environment is that the end of 2011 is the best time to buy a car, which is undoubtedly good news for the overall auto market. However, these still cannot guarantee positive growth in December 2011, but the growth or decline will undoubtedly be better than in November.

The market section 2011 is a year for independent brands of passenger cars. In early 2011, the small-displacement purchase tax preferential policy and the car-to-country policy were withdrawn from the market. In October of the same year, the “Energy-saving Products Benefiting the People’s Project” increased the energy-saving vehicle subsidy threshold, etc. , For the main attack on the 1.6L passenger car market, the independent brand caused multiple blows. The market share of self-owned brands began to shrink, and the growth of some companies began to deteriorate.

From January to November, the number of self-owned branded passenger cars sold was 5,523,500, which was a year-on-year decrease of 2.34%, accounting for 42.15% of the total passenger car sales, and the occupancy rate was down by 3.28 percentage points from the same period of last year. In terms of market share by country in November, apart from the year-on-year decline in market share of self-owned brands, French cars also declined slightly. Other cars: German cars, Japanese cars, U.S. cars and Korean cars, market share All have different degrees of increase.

According to the statistics from the China Automobile Association, the export of auto companies rebounded in November from the previous month, which was a year-on-year increase of more than 50%. In November, the number of automobile exports increased by 274,900 over the same period of last year, which contributed 65.43% to domestic automobile growth over the same period, an increase of 11% over the previous 10 months.

In addition, according to customs statistics, in the first 10 months of 2011, China accumulatively imported 820,000 vehicles, an increase of 27% year-on-year. Although under the background of proactive macroeconomic regulation, the GDP growth rates in the first three quarters of 2011 reached 9.7%, 9.5%, and 9.1%, respectively, and the GDP trend declined quarter by quarter, so the market experienced a 4 percent growth in GDP growth in the fourth quarter. . The economic downturn directly affects the imported car market. However, the goal of importing more than one million cars in 2011 is not difficult to achieve.

Corporate articles As of November 2011, sales of the top ten self-owned narrow-sense passenger vehicles companies were mostly unsatisfactory. Among the top ten companies, four companies fell year-on-year, including Chery and BYD. In addition, only two companies (Great Wall, Dongfeng) maintained a relatively high growth, while the rest of the companies grew at a flat rate. (Part of the sales rank of the independent brand narrow-sale passenger car company)

Yin Tongyue, party committee secretary, chairman and general manager of Chery Automobile Co., Ltd., expressed his attitude of “giving up market size and sales rankings, and hope the brand has been sublimated” during the 2011 Shanghai Auto Show. The year-on-year decline in sales was justified. As the overall growth of self-owned narrow-sense passenger vehicles is weak, Chery still holds the top spot in autonomous vehicle sales. However, in the sales ranking of all passenger car companies, the ranking has declined compared with the same period of last year. From the point of view of specific sales volume, small cars that accounted for about 1/3 of Chery's share have seen a certain decline, but its SUV model, Tiggo, has risen sharply from the same period of 2010, which is also a factor in Chery’s sales not falling sharply. In addition, the brand name of the Ruiqi G5 and the newly-listed G6, which were intended to enhance the brand image, have not been released, and the "brand sublimation" in this area will take some time.

The drastic decline in sales of BYD can be said to provide evidence and truth to the industry's criticism. Among the top ten self-owned branded passenger vehicles in sales, the decline rate was more than 15%. The star model BYD F3, once the sales champion of the sedan brand, is no longer the scene. In the first 11 months of 2011, sales of BYD F3 have not yet reached the top ten in the sales volume of cars. This is also a point of disappointment for BYD’s sales decline. However, the only good news is that the SUV market is still hot. BYD's newly-listed SUV model S6 has used this trend to finally break through 10,000 vehicles in November, weakening its decline.

The sales volume of Geely ranked third (growth of self-owned brand narrow passenger cars, the same below) increased year-on-year, but cumulative sales in the first 11 months of 2011 only reached 387,500 units, an increase of 5% year-on-year, only The sales target for the whole year is about 80% of the 480,000 vehicles. The completion of this goal is basically hopeless. In terms of specific sales, Geely’s sales of small cars have fallen slightly compared to the same period of last year, while its emperor’s focus on brand sales has steadily increased.

FAW's sales figures include Tianjin FAW Xiali, FAW sedan auto parts, and FAW Jilin MPV models. Among them, FAW Senya's 2011 sales growth began to shrink after high growth in 2010. In addition, the days of FAW Car are not too good, and sales in the first 11 months of 2011 have also declined. After the two forces dragged on the back of FAW, the sales growth of Tianjin FAW was also insignificant.

Among the top five autonomous vehicle companies, only Great Wall Motor has grown better, and it is also most hopeful to complete the annual target of 500,000 units (including its commercial vehicle segment) set at the beginning of the year. As with other companies, sales of small cars in the Great Wall have also declined, and the decline has been relatively large, at about 40%. However, the power of its compact car made up for the shortage of small cars and became the backbone of its car sales. The Great Wall, known as the SUV model, still devotes great efforts to the SUV market. Haval H6 (listed in the annual SUV Award in the 6th “Love My China Car” model year (microblogging) event) helped the Haval series in 2011. In November, sales exceeded 20,000 units, far exceeding Dongfeng Honda CR-V, and further narrowed the gap with its competitors in the cumulative sales in the previous November.

Chang'an’s sales figures refer to the narrow passenger car part of Chongqing Chang’an. Although the sales figures for the previous November have increased year-on-year, the proportion of passenger cars in Chang’an is still relatively low. In addition, some of JAC's passenger vehicles have increased by about 10% in the first 11 months, but in 2011, they are destined to miss the goal of 300,000 vehicles (the original target for 2010). At present, its main sales model is still concentrated in Ruifeng and Hey. The lack of product lines is also an important reason why sales are difficult to open.

According to Dongfeng’s own brand passenger vehicle development plan, it is set at three levels. The first level is the Dongfeng brand's autonomous passenger vehicle, namely "2+2" (the first "2" stands for Dongfeng Passenger Vehicle and Dongfeng Xiaokang; the second "2" stands for Zhengzhou Nissan and Dongfeng Liuzhou); the second level It is the Dongfeng Yulon Greater China brand cooperating with Yulon; the third level is the joint venture own brand. This data includes the first two levels, but does not include Dongfeng Xiaokang (micro-off).

In the first 11 months of 2011, Dongfeng had the highest growth rate among the top ten companies in the sales of own-brand narrow passenger vehicles, which reached 54%. The highest contribution rate is Dongfeng’s MPV model, and Dongfeng Liuzhou, which is a booming company, is clearly one of the “big heads”. In the first 11 months of 2011, the company’s accumulated growth has exceeded 100% year-on-year.

Not long ago, Dongfeng’s own brand mid-term business plan called “Dry” D300 was officially released, which is evident in its ambition. However, at the current level of sales, the Dongfeng still has a long way to go. In January-November 2011, Dongfeng sold only 150,000 units of its own-brand passenger vehicle sales.

Haima’s sales include the two parts of FAW Haima and Haima’s Zhengzhou. It is not easy to achieve 12% growth under the narrow growth of narrow passenger vehicles. Fumeilai is still the main sales force of hippocampus. The hippocampus listed at the beginning of 2010 has a higher growth year-on-year in sales in 2011, but there is still room for improvement in the sales base for a single month.

From SAIC's brand positioning, even if there is a slight decline in sales volume of MG and Roewe, it is not a big deal. However, from the establishment of the target of “90,000 vehicles in 2009, 180,000 vehicles in 2010”, “160,000 vehicles in 2010, and 230,000 vehicles in 2011,” we can also see SAIC's desire for sales. However, the positioning of SAIC's own branded products is doomed to be "willing" to silence sales for some time.