Coal-based natural gas equipment industry is about to usher in high growth

As oil prices rise and petroleum and petrochemical products are increasingly in short supply, the modern coal chemical industry, which produces clean energy and petrochemical products with abundant and low-cost coal resources, will become the biggest attraction for the chemical industry during the 12th Five-Year Plan period. Preliminary planning statistics for all provinces and the 12th Five-Year Coal Chemical Industry The investment amounted to nearly 2 trillion yuan. Compared with the other four directions of modern coal chemical industry, coal-to-natural gas energy conversion has the highest efficiency, and the technology is mature and the technology is simple. Unit calorific investment cost is low, and it is expected to be the first to achieve scale.

The coal-to-natural gas industry will usher in a golden period of development. During the 12th five-year period, the scale of investment will be at least 200 billion. China's natural gas accounts for only 4% of the energy consumption structure, far below the world average of 27%. The natural gas market during the 11th five-year period The development is in short supply, and the growth of imports is far greater than the growth of output. During the 12th Five-Year Plan period, China's energy-saving and emission-reduction goal is to reduce the energy consumption per unit of GDP by 16%, and the green energy and natural gas industry will receive vigorous development. It is estimated that by 2015, the proportion of natural gas consumption will double, from the current 4% to 8%. the above. The cost of coal gas has obvious advantages compared with the import prices of Central Asia and part of LNG. In 2015, the output is expected to reach 30 billion cubic meters, which corresponds to an investment of at least 200 billion yuan.

Natural gas price reform to open up the coal gas profit space, the future gas price rise space at least 50%

China's natural gas industry is subject to government price control in the middle and lower reaches of the gas industry. With reference to the history of the US natural gas industry, China's natural gas prices will rise in the future. At the end of 2011, natural gas in Guangdong and Guangxi provinces was the first to implement price changes, and the price of unconventional gas was expected to be market-oriented. We believe that natural gas prices will rise at least 50% after price reform. According to our calculations, the price range of coal-based natural gas in Xinjiang after the price reform is promoted is approximately 1.66-2.14 yuan per cubic meter. Compared with the cost of 1.2657 yuan per cubic meter, the profitability of coal-based natural gas projects is very considerable.

The investment in natural gas pipeline network is accelerating, and the implementation of external transmission pipelines breaks the bottleneck of development of coal gas production. Currently, the trans-regional core pipeline transmission capacity in China totals 95.6 billion cubic meters per year. In 2010, China’s natural gas consumption was 107.3 billion cubic meters, and the existing trunk pipelines Network capacity has been unable to meet demand. By 2015, China will build 17 natural gas pipelines, including the West Third Line, the West Fourth Line, and the Shaanxi-Beijing Third Line, and build 45,000 kilometers of natural gas pipelines, doubling the existing pipeline network inventory. In addition, Sinopec will commence the construction of two new coal pipelines, namely the Guangdong-Zhejiang-Guangzhou pipeline and the Xinlu-Zhe Pipeline, each with a scale of 300 cubic meters per year. Currently, nearly 46 billion cubic meters of coal-based natural gas has been implemented in the pipeline and sales market.

The coal gas equipment market is estimated to be 100 billion. We are optimistic about gasifiers, pressure vessels, and heat transfer equipment. In 2012, we will usher in high-growth coal-based natural gas equipment investment, accounting for more than 50%, and the market size will be conservatively estimated at 100 billion. According to the empirical data of the Haichuan Chemical Forum, in the equipment investment, pressure vessels account for about 45% of the total demand, heat exchangers account for about 20%, pumps and pumps account for about 15%, air separation equipment, pipe systems, valves, instruments and electronic control. And so on accounted for 20%. The Datang Fuxin Coal-to-Gas Natural Gas project was started in April 2010. During the process of tendering and publicizing the project, we discovered that since October 2011, the related equipment began to enter the centralized tendering period, combined with our proposed coal-based natural gas planning. In the state and date of construction of the project, we believe that coal-based natural gas equipment companies are expected to enter the period of large-scale order growth in 2012, and the future performance is expected to continue high growth.

Investment Strategy and Targets: Key Recommendations Lanke High-tech, Zhanghuaji and Hailu Heavy Industry From the perspective of market size, gasifiers account for nearly one-third of coal chemical equipment investment share the largest market space, Zhang Huaji (002564) As the leading manufacturer of this kind of core equipment, we recommend priority configuration; in addition, we also recommend the field of heat transfer equipment, with the focus on recommending the highest share of heat exchanger business revenue, ranking first in the domestic market share of Lanke High-tech ( 601798); and in the field of pressure vessels, it is highly recommended to have a certain application performance in the coal chemical demonstration project, and the production capacity will be released soon, and the stock price has a safety margin. (002255).

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Ningbo Dasky Life Science/ Eralab Scientific Instrument(HK)Co., Limited. , https://www.daskyswab.com