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Editor's note: Authoritative sources predict that China's auto production will exceed 10 million this year, and the automotive industry will enter a transition period from quantitative change to qualitative change. If this prediction becomes a reality, the Chinese auto industry will face changes from concepts to strategies, from product development to product marketing, and from the domestic market to the international market. How to face this change and how to participate in this transformation has become a topic facing the automotive industry.
The newspaper today publishes two sets of articles in the A4 and A6 editions. A preliminary discussion on this issue is expected. It hopes to arouse the attention of all parties.
According to the plan, by 2010, China's auto production will reach 9 million, and the auto industry will truly become a national pillar industry. However, the sustained and rapid growth of the automobile consumer market in the past two years has led to the development of the automotive industry far exceeding the expectations of the relevant government departments.
In 2007, after the country's auto production reached 8.88 million, all industry players believed that in 2008 China will become the third country with an annual output of 10 million vehicles. For a large-scale industry, 10 million vehicles are enough to support the rapid and rapid development of the automotive industry.
"After the output exceeds 10 million vehicles, the development period of the auto industry from big to strong will soon begin." Zhang Xiaoji, executive vice president of the China Federation of Machinery Industry, told reporters. With the automobile becoming the pillar industry of the national economy, China's automobile industry will soon begin to change from quantitative to qualitative change.
However, there are three hurdles that may have a negative impact on the industry from big to strong.
The macro development strategy lags behind
In 2006, China began to implement the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" development plan. For the automobile industry that had initially become the country's pillar industry, 2006 was a year in which the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" started. Because the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan†of the auto industry was not announced in 2005, and the automotive industry lacks development guidance.
Until mid-2007, the plan came late. According to this plan, by 2010, China's auto production will reach 9 million vehicles.
The market has made a modest joke with planning. In 2007, China’s auto production reached 8.88 million vehicles, which reached the planning target almost three years ahead of schedule.
This is not the first time that the competent industry department has forecasted the development speed of the wrong car market. The “Tenth Five-Year Plan†for the automobile industry compiled by the former State Economic and Trade Commission indicates that the automobile demand in 2005 is expected to reach 3.1 million to 3.3 million vehicles, and the demand for 2010 is estimated to be 3.94 million to 445 million vehicles, and the demand for 2015 will be met. The volume is expected to be 5.71 million to 6.1 million vehicles. The fact is that the production and sales volume of automobiles in 2002, 2003 and 2005 have reached the predicted values ​​of vehicle demand in the final stages of the “fifteenthâ€, “eleventh†and “twelfth†periods mentioned above.
The misjudgment of the demand for the entire vehicle market directly affects the planning of the parts industry and lags behind the vehicle planning. And from this point of view, the relevant government departments have made inaccurate judgments about whether the industry's capacity is surplus.
Part of the company’s export strategy is not clear
Except for the United States, the export volume of all major automotive countries in the world is greater than the sales volume in the domestic market. For example, the number of new cars registered in Germany in 2007 was less than 3.25 million, which was the lowest year since Germany's reunification, and its car exports have reached a record high. According to the statistics of the German Automobile Industry Association (VDA), 3 out of every 4 vehicles manufactured in Germany in 2007. Data from China's customs show that in 2007 China's total vehicle export volume was about 600,000 vehicles, accounting for 6.76% of the total output. For the Chinese auto industry, which is committed to becoming a powerful automobile company, a large number of overseas developments are not only a strategic consideration for seeking development, but also an inevitable requirement for international competition in the domestic market.
Due to the relatively low cost of China's auto industry, compared with its counterparts in the United States, Japan, and Europe, China's auto companies have a certain degree of competitiveness in the international market. In the field of passenger vehicles, Chery’s data released a few days ago showed that the company’s export volume reached 120,000 in 2007. For commercial vehicles, China National Heavy Duty Truck and Jianghuai Automobile both exported over 10,000 vehicles last year.
As more and more companies go out of the country, some companies do not pay attention to long-term interests, and it is not uncommon for companies to pursue short-term benefits through price wars. Regarding this situation, although the relevant competent authorities have introduced some normative policies, they have not achieved the obvious effect of treating both the symptoms and the causes. There is no clear strategy for how China's auto industry should develop when it moves overseas.
Shortage of talent highlights lack of strategic vision
As a capital and technology-intensive industry, the development of the automotive industry depends on the strength of talented people. With the rapid expansion of China's auto market, the lack of talent in the automotive industry is increasingly exposed.
Since 2004, domestic auto companies have gradually gone abroad to recruit middle- and high-level technical talents with rich work experience. Zhao Fuquan, Han Zhiyu, and Xu Min have all returned home to pursue their dream cars.
Even so, the shortage of talents in auto companies, especially autonomous auto companies, is still very prominent. In this regard, Zhao Fuquan, vice president of Geely Holding Group, has a brilliant analysis. He believes that in addition to the rapid expansion of the industry leading to a shortage of talent and the fact that the longevity of the industry leads to the training of generalists, there is another reason why it is very important, vicious competition. As a result of vicious competition, talents are frequently changed, which directly extends the training period of talents.
If we look at the overall height, the shortage of talent shows that the company's strategic vision is not enough. On the one hand, there is insufficient prospect for the rapid expansion of the market, resulting in the lack of sufficient personnel to support the development of the enterprise, and only to dig a corner; on the other hand, it also shows that the management of the company does not invest enough in the construction of corporate culture and cannot give employees a sense of identity.
It is necessary to cross the “three ridges†for the Chinese auto industry