Water To Air Heat Exchanger,Tubular Heat Exchanger,Type Of Heat Exchanger,Counter Flow Heat Exchanger Wuxi Dingfeng pressure vessel Co., Ltd , https://www.wuxidingfeng.com
Domestic coal demand increased After the coal import volume declined in July and August of this year, China's coal import rebounded again in September. The import volume reached 12.55 million tons, an increase of 780,000 tons, an increase of 8.85 million tons, an increase of 235.9%. Although the import volume in October has not yet been announced, the accumulated imports in the first 9 months have reached 85.7 million tons, an increase of 167% over the same period of last year.
According to the analysis of the General Administration of Customs, due to the impact of the global financial crisis, the external market demand has slowed and China's coal exports have shrunk dramatically. With the stabilization of the domestic economy, sustained economic growth has led to an increase in energy consumption, and domestic coal demand has continued to increase, which has played a certain role in suppressing the export of coal. At the same time, the demand for coal in the domestic market has gradually increased and it has also led to the import of coal.
Since the end of September, domestic spot prices have risen by about 11% to RMB 5 per ton. Li Jing said, “Because domestic coal demand has increased, especially demand from the power sector, it is growing at a faster rate. We expect coal prices to increase further in the fourth quarter.†At present, it accounts for about half of China’s total seaborne coal shipments. The Qinhuangdao Port’s coal inventories hovered around 4 million tons, which was significantly lower than the average of 5.4 million tons in the first half of this year.
Coal import space is still very large, Li Jing believes that the rise in electricity demand, supply-side constraints, declining port stocks, low bulk freight rates, structural shortages of coking coal, and railway transport bottlenecks are the recent support of domestic coal prices, and the long-term reliance on imports has increased. The main factor.
The growth of power generation in China has accelerated in the past few months, with a year-on-year increase of 10.24% in September, although it is slightly lower than the level in August (usually the peak season for power generation). Jing Li predicts that, compared with the previous year's base, the rate of increase in the next few months should accelerate.
After the integration of small coal mines in Shanxi, the largest coal-producing province in China, the domestic production recovery rate is slower than expected. As of mid-September, two-thirds of coal mine owners in Shanxi province signed an official transfer agreement, and the remaining 1/3 are in the initial agreement stage. The completion of the reorganization process may be later than the initial scheduled goal of November.
The Shanxi provincial government originally set its target for this year's coal production to remain at 650 million tons in 2008, which requires an average monthly output of 68.7 million tons from September to December. Between the first and third quarters, Shanxi’s total coal production was 431.3 million tons, which was approximately 10% lower than the same period in 2008. However, the coal production in September was 57.2 million tons, compared with 58 million tons in August and 59.10 million tons in July.
Due to tight supply, coal inventories at China's major coal ports fell to 4.26 million tons on October 20 and fell 15.9% since the end of August. Li Jing's analysis believes that if there is no corresponding supply, winter demand will increase, which may lead to further decline in port inventory.
Relatively low freight rates also stimulated imports. The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) fell by 26.3% from the peak in June to October 23. In September, Guangdong's coal imports increased by 42.8% from the previous month to 3.34 million tons. According to Li Jing, although the freight rate has rebounded in the past three weeks, the expected delivery of new vessels will limit the upside of recent ocean freight charges.
This year, China has become a very important importer of metallurgical coal. By August, the import volume has increased by 10 times compared with the same period last year. Part of the reason for this result is the closure of small coal mines whose output is disproportionate to the supply, but the underlying reason is the limited domestic supply of high-end metallurgical coal products. BHP Billiton forecast in September that China will import 30 million tons of coking coal this year, which accounts for about 21% of the global shipping market, compared with 1 million tons last year. This level of imports accounts for about 7% of current consumption.
In addition, from September to October of this year, the maintenance work from Datong, a large coal producing area in Shanxi province, to the Daqin Railway in Qinhuangdao has caused disturbance to coal transportation.
China's coal imports increased from 40.1 million tons in 2008 to 86.5 million tons in the first three quarters of 2009, accounting for a considerable proportion of the Asia-Pacific seaborne trade. However, imports accounted for only a small part of domestic demand; during January-September, China’s coal production totaled 2.4 billion tons. Jing Li predicts that imports in 2009 will exceed 100 million tons will not be a problem, of which about 20% will be coking coal. Taking into account the economic development momentum and the impact of power generation, building materials and steel industry on demand, China's coal imports still have a lot of room for growth.
In order to increase energy security and limit carbon emissions, China is investing heavily to increase the proportion of new energy in the energy structure from the current 9% to 15% in 2020. However, according to the IEA's forecast, the coal demand for China's single power generation segment will increase to 3.5% in 2030, compared with only 0.7% in the United States over the same period. Li Jing pointed out in the report that this means that by 2030, China's annual net coal imports may reach 80 million to 100 million tons.
She also mentioned in the report that, with the exception of hydropower, the cost of new energy generation is much higher than that of thermal power generation. In the long run, higher production costs due to more stringent safety standards and clean coal technologies should lead to higher thermal power costs.
China will become a net importer of coal for the first time this year
According to the preliminary data released by the General Administration of Customs recently, China exported 2.05 million tons of coal in October, a 20% drop from the same period last year. In the first 10 months, cumulative exports totaled 18.9 million tons, a decrease of 50.6% from the same period of last year. JP Morgan Chase China Securities and Commodities Chairman Li Jing predicted in his recently released economic report that China will become a net importer of coal for the first time this year.