Yao Jingyuan: The steady growth of the automobile industry eases economic pressure

The Chinese economy is generally steadily stabilizing, stable and good, and difficult. First of all, China's economic growth is "shifting", the second is the transformation of economic growth mode, the third is economic restructuring, and the fourth is the transformation of growth momentum. The overall situation is more complicated.
Economic growth shifts from high speed to low speed
China began to implement the reform and opening up policy in 1978. In the past 30 years, China has ranked first in the growth rate of the world economy, but the downward pressure on the economy in the past two years is relatively large. Some people have criticized China's rapid growth in the past. In fact, this comment is one-sided. Yao Jingyuan, the chief economist of the former National Bureau of Statistics, pointed out that China had not escaped poverty in the historical period of 1978 and had not fundamentally solved the problem of food and clothing. At that time, the per capita annual income of the cities in China was only 343 yuan, and the per capita income of rural farmers was only 133 yuan. At that time, the most prominent problems and major contradictions in China’s development were filled, so it was necessary to ensure the growth of high growth rate and the economic growth pursued at that stage. High speed is correct and is in line with China's objective economic development needs.
However, with the rapid development of China's economy, the internal problems and prominent contradictions have changed. Yao Jingyuan said: "The inherent problems of China's economic development, the changes in major contradictions and the changes in Chinese eating are similar. For more than 30 years, Chinese people have experienced three stages of eating change. The first stage is called full, and the main contradiction is the quantity problem. The second stage is called eating; now it is the third stage, called nutrition, health and food safety. China's economic development is also the same. After more than 30 years of high growth, the main contradiction, the main problem is not speed. It is the question of the quality and efficiency of growth. Therefore, from this perspective, it must be seen that the current slowdown in economic growth is a law and the need to increase the inherent law."
Not only China, but the economic development experience of many countries in the world is similar to that of China. Japan experienced rapid growth in 1955, similar to China's growth rate over the past three decades. Also known as the “Asian Four Little Dragons”, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan and Hong Kong also experienced rapid economic growth in the 1960s, and their high-speed growth stimulated for about 20 years. In this way, China’s rapid growth for 30 consecutive years is itself a miracle in the history of human economy.
Reform dividends and demographic dividends have created China's high-speed economic growth Yao Jingyuan pointed out that in the past, China's economic growth, it is very important to rely on two dividends, one is the dividend of reform, and the other is the dividend of the population.
Reform and opening up turned the planned economy into a market economy, and the current reforms have entered the water zone, and it has reached the stage of tackling the hardship.
The "13th Five-Year Plan" clearly stated that three guarantees should be made, one is to ensure a comprehensive well-off society, and the other is to ensure that the reform has substantial breakthroughs in major areas and major links. Obviously, if the dividend of reform continues to support China’s high economic growth, it is now necessary to create a good environment for reform. From the perspective of economic development, if China’s economic growth can achieve a smooth shift, the Chinese economy will be operated objectively. It is not as tight as the past, in order to create a good space and environment for reform.
The demographic dividend has now disappeared. China’s working population (16 to 60 years old) has decreased by more than 2 million in 2013 and 3.7 million in 2014. It is still decreasing at a rate of 2,3 million per year, nearly ten. In the year, the number of elderly people over the age of 80 in China has doubled, and the proportion of domestic workers over 65 years old is close to 10%. In response to our economy, labor costs have risen sharply, external overcapacity has increased, and internal labor costs have risen sharply. Although the purpose of economic work is to improve people's livelihood, if the laborer's remuneration increases, the quality of the labor force increases, and then the labor force rises, the increase in wealth created is benign; but if the price rises only because the demographic dividend disappears, this will lead to the enterprise's The cost has risen.
The automobile industry promotes China's economic growth. The overall tone of China's economy is still stable. The Party Central Committee has repeatedly stressed that the "13th Five-Year Plan" is the main tone of economic work. files.
The automobile industry is one of the important factors for the rapid growth of China's economy in the past 30 years. The automobile industry has made significant contributions to China's economic development. The automobile industry chain is very long, and it is related to more than 150 industries such as steel, rubber, glass, leather and textiles. If the automobile industry declines, more than 150 related industries will be affected.
Recently, the State Council’s issue of steady economic growth has proposed several major measures for the automobile industry. One is to cancel the restriction on the purchase of new energy vehicles, the other is to halve the purchase tax on models with a displacement below 1.6L, and the third is to increase the yellow label. Scrap strength. These are all guarantees for the healthy and sustainable development of the automotive industry.
Yao Jingyuan said that the auto industry is facing a severe situation. He pointed out that the purchase of cars should be cancelled. The government cannot intervene in the free exchange of goods and currencies. Other measures can be taken to control the environmental problems caused by congestion and automobiles, such as collecting certain fees. It is used for environmental protection, or it is necessary to impose certain congestion costs on road repairs.
In addition, since the 1.6L displacement purchase tax is halved, the government can consider the reduction of all vehicle purchase tax. Because in the regulation of the economy, a proactive fiscal policy is very important, and fiscal policy is fundamental to structural adjustment. It should be based on the most fundamental way for developed countries to experience economic recession – tax cuts.
As for the yellow label car, it is necessary to increase the scrapping efforts, use the active fiscal policy, and guide the active elimination, further driving the entire automobile industry.

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