Solar Energy Industry: 2010 Outbreak Growth 2011 Successive Fatigue

EnergyTrend, a research division of TRENDFORCE, publishes research findings on the recent solar industry. EnergyTrend believes that after the explosive growth of the solar industry in 2010, the growth of the market in 2011 will slow down and take a rest.

According to the estimate of EnergyTrend, the installed capacity of the global solar market in 2010 will be between 12GW and 13GW. The biggest variable is the total installed capacity of the German market. Looking to the future, EnergyTrend believes that the market will continue to grow. However, due to the market demand exceeding expectations in 2010, the growth rate of the global market in 2011 (YoY) will be lower than 20%.

On the other hand, according to EnergyTrend's survey, the current prices of polysilicon, silicon wafers, and batteries remain high in the spot market. Taking silicon wafers as an example, the price of one wafer in the spot market has already claimed 4 US dollars, and the actual transaction price is 3.3 to 3.5 US dollars per tablet, and the price remains unchanged compared with August.

Looking ahead to Q4 in 2010, judging by the rule of thumb, the industry started to enter the off-season in late November 2010. However, EnergyTrend believes that the market demand in the second half of 2010 remains at a high level and prices cannot be reversed in the short term. However, in 2011, major European countries lowered the subsidy amount, and the market forces in emerging markets, the United States, and China are still not clear, making EnergyTrend’s conservative estimate for the 2011 global market installation forecast. Between 13.5GW and 15.5GW.