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At the beginning of 2011, many commercial vehicle dealers were still gearing up and thinking about doing their best in the traditional peak season in March, April and May. However, due to the rise in oil prices, policy restrictions, and especially the uncertain economic environment, etc. Under the constraints of the factors, most commercial vehicle dealers are just standing still. Compared with the same period in 2010, they have not achieved growth, and some brands have even experienced negative growth. In spite of this, the distributors are still optimistic about the 2011 market. One view is that after the commercial vehicle market achieved leapfrog growth in 2010, the difference between the peak season and season has weakened, with the exception of the traditional peak season performance. In addition, the sales of the market in other months can also maintain a certain level, and the market in 2011 also showed such a trend.
New products increase, but earnings have not increased synchronously
It is understood that since the light-duty truck industry has launched a large number of new products to the market since 2011, especially the new high-end light trucks, the competition among various brands has intensified, and the dealers' operating environment has become more and more tense. The overall performance was OK, but compared with the same period in 2010, the sales volume was still slightly lower. Taking into account the overall market situation in 2011 and the impediments of some irresistible forces, this result is still acceptable. On the basis of the original 100P and 600P light trucks, Qingling has launched the 700P+FTR mid-to-second card portfolio in 2010. In early 2011, it also launched the Isuzu FV R, FV Z and G V R 3 heavy truck products. Jiangling continued to strengthen its coverage of light-duty truck products. Jiangling, which originally focused on mid-to-high-end markets, also launched low-end products with a minimum price of only 60,000 yuan in 2011. Beiqi Futian will gradually replace the Cummins engine in its own product line to improve product quality. This year, Cummins series engines will be gradually equipped with products such as Parker and Pickup. In the absence of macroeconomic growth, commercial vehicle dealers used the market as abnormal growth in 2010 as a relatively flat market performance in 2011.
In fact, not only did Foton face such a dilemma, its own brand Jianghuai, which ranked top in market share, and Qingling, a joint venture brand, also encountered the same situation. The sales volume in March and April 2011 was not as high as it was in the same period of 2010. Qingling dealers explained that the market's flourishing market demarcation in 2011 was not very clear, and the sales volume in May was not bad. Although compared with the previous two months, the traffic volume in the exhibition hall decreased slightly, but the customer's turnover intention was very high. clear.
In the mini-vehicle market, it still continues its good growth since 2009. Wuling and Changan in the front line maintained a growth rate of around 20% in the first quarter. Among them, Wuling’s newly listed glory has not been 100% To meet market demand, brands such as Dongfeng Xiaokang and Fushida also achieved a 30% to 15% growth rate in the first quarter.
Car prices are cold against the New Deal restricting market development
In fact, for the commercial vehicle market in 2011 suddenly slowed down, many dealers did not expect. At the beginning of the year, almost all commercial vehicle dealers predicted that the overall increase in the market in 2011 will be more than 20%. However, after entering March, several consecutive incidents will affect the market. The first is the "Measures for the Inspection and Supervision of Fuel Consumption for Road Transport Vehicles" issued on March 1, 2011 issued by the Ministry of Communications, which requires that the fuel consumption of commercial vehicles in the state of sale should reach the national approved standard, otherwise the shipment The management department will not issue operating licenses. In fact, this policy was introduced in July 2010, leaving a sufficient transition period for commercial vehicle brands. However, almost all industries did not attach importance to this policy. After the official implementation, vehicles that did not enter the Fuel Bulletin Directory could not be processed. At the time of the operation certificate, car companies and distributors began to wake up, but only from the beginning of March declaration has missed the golden age of commercial vehicle sales.
Since the implementation of this policy is not far from the day of 315 consumer rights protection, not only has a lot of complaints been attracted at that time, but some customers have seen that they cannot solve this problem in a short period of time, or even unsubscribe directly. The degree also affects the normal operation of the dealer. Jiangling Motors dealers said that due to the large variety of commercial vehicles and the complexity of the models, although some brands may appear to have entered the public catalog, there are actually more models in the reporting process. This policy is tough. The dealers were caught off guard and the markets that had already stirred up were cooled down.
In addition to the above policy reasons, the earthquake in Japan also had a certain impact on the domestic commercial vehicle market. Qingling dealers said that although the Qingling brand's national production rate is relatively high, like the passenger car, some core components still need to be imported from Japan. Affected by the earthquake, the supply of core components has been interrupted, making Qingling products The supply has decreased. Another influence of the earthquake in Japan is at the economic level. Japan’s earthquake affected not only Japan’s domestic companies, but also some domestic companies’ adjustment of their production capacity or production plans under the influence of economic integration and industrial chains. Demand is suspended in the commercial vehicle market.
Opportunities and challenges will coexist in the second half of the year
For the current situation in which the commercial vehicle market is gradually weakening during the busy season, dealers have reached a consensus that, except for December, companies will not have a car purchase plan for the purpose of returning funds at the end of the year, and the entire truck market in 2011 will maintain the current status quo. Jiangling Motors responsible person forecast. According to different seasons, between July and August 2011, with the school starting, there will be an increase in the school bus market, and like the village committee and some government departments, if there is surplus in the annual budget, it will become a lot of commercial use. Car dealers focus on public relations.
Fushida dealers stated that the changes in the market in the second half of the year are mainly due to the energy saving and subsidies policy. For micro-cars selling for three or four thousand yuan, the energy-saving subsidies of 3,000 yuan is already a very strong stimulus. This policy has also been withdrawn from the market. It is believed that a wave of buying will be formed before the cancellation of the policy, and then the market will fall into a period of cooldown.
In addition, the "Regulations on the Protection of Highway Safety", which will be formally implemented by the State Council on July 1, will be another driving force for the growth of the commercial vehicle industry. The policy intensified the crackdown on overload violations and violations. Among these measures, trucks with over-loading violations exceeding 3 times in one year will be revoked, truck drivers will lose their qualifications for commercial transport, and unauthorized modifications to transport vehicles. Enterprises will be punished with a maximum fine of 200,000 yuan. Commercial vehicle dealers believe that if this policy is implemented, it will increase the logistics company’s operating costs in the short term, but in the long run, the implementation of the New Deal makes logistics companies to meet the capacity Requirements, will certainly accelerate the purchase of new cars, which is an opportunity for the commercial vehicle industry.
Unsatisfactory sales volume has become a worry
At this time of 2010, most commercial vehicle dealers smiled when they summed up sales. Now, their mood is not at all easy. The off-season comes early and will last longer than usual. Talking about the future sales situation, the person in charge of the Dongfeng popular zone said so. Rising oil prices, inflation and a depressed consumer environment. There are many negative factors for commercial vehicles in 2011. One side is the gradual increase of inventory, and the other is the declining sales. Most commercial vehicle dealers in the interview feel that the future is uncertain.
According to past practice, from the Spring Festival to May, it is the peak sales season of commercial vehicles, but in 2011 many dealers did not feel this warm current. Dealers in the truck industry were hit hardest, with Jiangling Motors’ share of light trucks in the Guangzhou auto market surpassing 27%, and Guangzhou Jiangling Motors’ sales performance for the January-April period of 2011 was fairly satisfactory. Its monthly sales remained at around 300 vehicles. As of now, only 180 cars were sold in May, and the market heat drops rapidly. According to reports, in 2011 the dealership needed to complete sales of 3,600 vehicles. From the current situation, it is difficult to complete the task, and its main competitor, Qingling, faces similar sales situation.
For the light-duty truck industry, there is also a sword of Damocles suspended in the heart of the dealers. The Ministry of Communications has issued the “Measures for the Inspection and Supervision of Fuel Consumption for Road Transport Vehiclesâ€. According to the measures, the fuel consumption of diesel vehicles The quantity must meet the mandatory national standards. At present, many light truck products on the market do not meet this standard. Vehicles that have not begun to meet this standard in Guangzhou have not been able to apply for operating licenses in certain regions. Since May, this restriction has been extended to all areas in Guangzhou. The main consumers of light trucks are logistic users, and many owners have therefore given up. The purchase of light trucks has affected car dealers. Both Qingling and JMC have the fuel consumption of the main sales products failing to meet this standard. In 2011, the new products launched by the enterprises on the market have limited contribution to the sales volume, and Jiangling’s new Shunda Super Value Edition’s share in sales is only 10%, in order to increase sales, many light truck dealers are doing promotions. In addition, the factory is also accelerating its technological upgrades and hopes to get products into the Fuel Bulletin Directory as soon as possible.
In terms of minicars, the sales incentives of the auto market were released ahead of schedule. Therefore, the sales of mini-vehicles such as Shanghai GM Wuling and Changan Automobile were very dull in March and April, and the market gradually recovered in May, but everyone still felt Heavy, the manufacturers demanded that we sell 78,000 vehicles in Guangzhou in 2011. In this three months period, the number of cars sold in May was more than 1,000. Now, the inventory of Rongguang has obviously increased. A Wuling dealership introduced a salesperson.
In this big market, there are also businesses that think the day is quite good. Zhengzhou Nissan Huizhong Motors is such an optimist. The dealers sold 800 vehicles in the first five months, a significant distance from the annual target of 2,400 vehicles. However, as sales of the Sage and NV 200 vehicles, which accounted for over 80% of sales, gradually increased in Guangzhou, they did not feel that pressure.
In the domestic commercial vehicle market, the busy season gradually fades, and sales inventory gradually becomes a worry.