China's Tire Industry intensifies its business risk and will benefit the industry in the long run

According to the report, China's tire industry entered 2014 in optimism, but over time, the industry situation has become mixed. The statistics of the 47 main tire enterprises of China Rubber Industry Association Tire Branch indicated that in the first half of the year tire production increased while sales revenue declined, export delivery volume increased and export delivery value decreased, inventory levels remained high, and profit margins decreased. In the second half of the year, as China's new tire production capacity gradually formed and the United States conducted a “double reverse” survey on Chinese semi-steel tires , the situation in China’s tire industry became more severe. However, at present, investment in tires is cooling down. Some companies will focus their investments on foreign projects, which will benefit the healthy and stable development of China's tire industry in the long run.

Yield growth income decline

According to statistics, the sales revenue of 47 tire companies in the first half of the year reached 97.41 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.52%; the total output of tires was 208 million sets, an increase of 11.45% year-on-year. Among them, the production of radial tires was 187 million sets, and the radialization rate was 89.8%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points year-on-year. China’s tire radialization rate continued to record high.

Only 7 of the 47 companies had a decrease in tire production, but they were modest, but there were 29 companies with a decrease in sales. Tire production increased by more than 20% in 10, of which 3 rose by more than 100%. Only 10 companies have increased their tire sales by 10%, while 13 companies have fallen by more than 10%.

From the above data, it can be seen that China's tire industry shows a divergence in sales growth or sales stagnation or decline, and this kind of spread has an expanding trend.

Semi-steel tires are overheated

Thirty-seven of the 47 tire companies produced all-steel tires, and 30 produced semi-steel tires, of which 24 had both steel and semi-steel tires. The total output of all steel tires was 44.648 million, an increase of 5.89% year-on-year. The total output of semi-steel tires was 142.2 million, an increase of 13.34% over the same period of last year.

In recent years, China’s semi-steel tire investment boom has started. Almost all old plants have been expanding their production capacity. At the same time, more than 10 semi-steel tire projects have been added. The development of semi-steel tires is obviously overheated. The total number of steel tires ranked among the top ten companies reached 29.16 million sets, which accounted for 65.3% of the total output, which was an increase of 0.9 percentage points from the same period of last year. The concentration of all-steel tires was relatively high. However, the total output of the top ten semi-steel tire companies was 94.16 million sets, which accounted for 66.2% of the total output. The industry concentration dropped by 3.1% on the basis of a drop of 6 percentage points last year, indicating that China’s semi-steel tire development is a new project. More often, it has reduced the concentration of semi-steel tire industry.

Rapid increase in export prices Yindie

Tire export volume maintained rapid growth, which was a year-on-year increase of 18.17%, of which radial tires increased by 17.49% year-on-year, but export delivery values ​​showed a negative growth of 1.2% year-on-year. The export volume and export delivery value are not in synch, the main reason being that the Chinese tire export prices have fallen by a large margin and the estimated price has dropped by about 20%. Six of the top ten export delivery values ​​were negative growth.

China's tire export volume accounted for 43.3% of total output, and its export amount accounted for 39.6% of total sales, indicating that China's tires are more dependent on foreign countries, especially for some companies. This should attract the attention of the Chinese tire industry and prevent foreign anti-dumping risks.

Reduced inventory high profits

The total inventory value of 47 tire companies was as high as 18.54 billion yuan, which was basically the same as last year, accounting for 19% of total sales. Considering that the price of tires has fallen by about 20%, the estimated inventory of tires has increased by about 20% year-on-year. Most companies now have a one-and-a-half month's worth of business inventories and are at historically high levels. There are 10 companies that account for more than 30% of sales, among which 3 inventories account for more than 90% of total sales revenue. These companies have relatively high operating risks and exert pressure on tire sales in the second half of the year.

The main reason for the high inventory of tires is that rubber prices are relatively low, and some tire companies have chosen to increase their output and increase their inventory. This is particularly evident in domestic-funded enterprises. Since this year, the price of tires has fallen by a large margin, and the prices of corporate tires have generally fallen by about 15% from the beginning of the year. The rate of decline has been far greater than the price reductions of major raw materials such as rubber. The profitability of tires has decreased significantly, and profits have decreased.

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